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The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is moving forward with a regulatory rule in the final days of the Biden administration that would effectively ban cigarettes currently on the market in favor of products with lower nicotine levels, which could end up boosting business for cartels operating on the black market, an expert tells Fox News Digital.

“Biden’s ban is a gift with a bow and balloons to organized crime cartels with it, whether it’s cartels, Chinese organized crime, or Russian mafia. It’s going to keep America smoking, and it’s going to make the streets more violent,” Rich Marianos, former assistant director of the U.S. Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives and the current chair of the Tobacco Law Enforcement Network, told Fox News Digital of the proposal. 

The FDA confirmed to Fox Digital on Monday that as of Jan. 3, the Tobacco Product Standard for Nicotine Level of Certain Tobacco Products had completed a regulatory review, but that the proposed rule has not yet been finalized. 

“The proposed rule, ‘Tobacco Product Standard for Nicotine Level of Certain Tobacco Products,’ is displaying in the Office of Management and Budget’s (OMB) ROCIS system as having completed regulatory review on January 3,” an FDA spokesman told Fox Digital. “As the FDA has previously said, a proposed product standard to establish a maximum nicotine level to reduce the addictiveness of cigarettes and certain other combusted tobacco products, when finalized, is estimated to be among the most impactful population-level actions in the history of U.S. tobacco product regulation. At this time, the FDA cannot provide any further comment until it is published.”

Fox New Digital reached out to the White House regarding concerns over the proposal if it were to take effect but did not receive a response. 

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Former President Barack Obama signed the Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act in 2009, which granted the FDA the power to regulate tobacco products. In the years since, the agency has worked to lower nicotine levels, including in July 2017 under the Trump administration, when then-FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb announced it would seek to require tobacco companies to drastically cut nicotine in cigarettes in an effort to help adult smokers quit.

In 2022, the FDA under the Biden administration announced plans for the proposed rule that would lower levels of nicotine so they were less addictive or non-addictive.

“Lowering nicotine levels to minimally addictive or non-addictive levels would decrease the likelihood that future generations of young people become addicted to cigarettes and help more currently addicted smokers to quit,” FDA Commissioner Robert Califf said at the time. 

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Lowering the levels of nicotine in commonly purchased cigarettes and other tobacco products would open the floodgates to the illicit trafficking of tobacco products into the U.S., Marianos told Fox News Digital. 

“This decision is being thrown down the public’s throat without one ounce of thought and preparation. Nobody sat down with law enforcement, nobody sat down with any doctors, No one sat down with any regulators to find out, ‘Hey, look, what are the unintended ramifications of such a poor choice,’ and that’s what I’m going to call it, a poor choice,” Marianos said. 

He explained that Mexican cartels are well-positioned to bring illegal tobacco across the border, as they do with substances such as fentanyl that have devastated communities across the U.S., while Chinese criminal organizations have some of the best counterfeit operations stretching from baby formula to cigarettes, and Russian organized crime groups have their foot in the door in cities across the nation, including in bodegas and other stores that sell tobacco products. 

Marianos said that criminal groups would likely quickly catch on to the proposal if it takes effect and subsequently amplify their tobacco operations – which he says will serve as an economic boon for the criminals. 

Americans who want to purchase cigarettes with higher levels of nicotine would then need to go through the illicit channels to obtain them, similar to buying “loosie” cigarettes on the streets of New York, putting average Americans at further criminal risk while also offering them cigarettes that are not regulated and originating from foreign nations. 

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Both Democrat and Republican lawmakers have already warned that tobacco trafficking in the U.S. poses a grave national security threat and already has its foot in the door. 

“In 2015, the State Department cited activity by terrorist groups, and criminal networks who have used tobacco trafficking operations to finance other crimes, including ‘money laundering, bulk cash smuggling, and the trafficking in humans, weapons, drugs, antiquities, diamonds, and counterfeit goods,’” Sens. Bill Cassidy, R-La.; Mark Warner, D-Va.; Marco Rubio, R-Fla.;  Bill Hagerty, R-Tenn.; and then-Sen. Bob Casey, D-Pa., wrote in a 2023 letter to Secretary of State Antony Blinken. 

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“Recently, public reporting has also noted these financial linkages between Mexican transnational criminal organizations (TCOs) involved in narcotics and fentanyl trafficking, and these tobacco smuggling activities. Mexican TCOs pose a grave threat to American national security and public health.”

Marianos added that in addition to the criminal effect posed to America and its residents, lowering nicotine levels would also defeat the stated mission of weaning smokers off cigarettes and instead lead to an increase in smoking. 

“You’re going to create more smoking. And I thought that’s what we’re trying to get away from, right? Smoking is bad. I thought we’re trying to do everything possible to get away from that and get the country safer. Well, if you take down the nicotine levels, people are going to smoke more. That is proven. All you have to do is just drive here in DC and see, you know workers on their smoke break,” he said, saying work productivity will even be driven down as people take more smoke breaks in alleys to get their nicotine fix. 

The Biden administration previously attempted to outright ban menthol cigarettes, in what was described as a “critical” piece of President Biden’s Cancer Moonshot initiative, but announced last year it was abruptly delaying such regulations as the public decried the move. A handful of groups argued that banning menthol unfairly targeted minority communities, while others argued the ban would open the floodgates to illicit menthol sales.